Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 2480 · HOU → BWI
departs 11:50 AM CT · arrives 4:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 18%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 20%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 21%
Fri 11/13 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.