Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 2529 · BWI → LAX
departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 12:13 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 37%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 31%
Wed 11/11 38%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.