Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 2576 · LGA → MDW
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 1:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 14%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 42%
Thu 11/12 47%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.