Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 2641 · LAS → PDX
departs 8:57 AM PT · arrives 11:27 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 14%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 13%
Fri 11/13 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.