Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 2851 · MAF → DAL
departs 11:06 AM CT · arrives 12:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 11/8 13%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 12%
Fri 11/13 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
11am departures from MAF are usually not late
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.