Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 2853 · LAS → SAT
departs 5:40 PM PT · arrives 10:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 50%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 42%
Fri 11/13 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.