Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 2974 · LAS → SFO
departs 8:11 PM PT · arrives 9:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11 32%
Thu 11/12 56%
Fri 11/13 61%
Sat 11/14 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.