Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3086 · SFO → SAN
departs 8:25 AM PT · arrives 10:04 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/8 18%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.