Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3107
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3107 · DEN → SBA
departs 8:46 PM MT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11 21%
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.