Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3212 · OAK → PHX
departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 6:30 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 33%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11 20%
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.