Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3247
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3247 · AUS → TPA
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 1:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.27 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.