Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3261 · OGG → PHX
departs 8:10 PM HT · arrives 4:36 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 9%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12 14%
Fri 11/13 10%
Sat 11/14 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
8pm departures from OGG are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 28 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.