Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3477 · SMF → PDX
departs 9:20 PM PT · arrives 11:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at PDX that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SMF that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.