Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3521 · PHX → SNA
departs 5:21 PM MT · arrives 5:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/8 39%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.