Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3565 · TPA → AUS
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 11:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 46%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.