Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3586 · SMF → EUG
departs 10:00 PM PT · arrives 11:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at EUG that day
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SMF that day
↓
Arrivals into EUG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
EUG (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.