Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3604 · RDU → BNA
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 1:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 16%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from RDU are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.