Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3616 · BWI → GSP
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sun 11/8 30%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 39%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BWI that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.