Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3682
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3682 · SAN → AUS
departs 6:56 PM PT · arrives 11:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/8 64%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.