Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3734
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3734 · SAN → SAT
departs 7:13 PM PT · arrives 12:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sun 11/8 58%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 30%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 43%
Fri 11/13 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.