Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3795 · SAT → PHX
departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 1:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 23%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 18%
Fri 11/13 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.