Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 381 · AUS → MDW
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 12:14 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.27 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.