Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3868 · LAS → OAK
departs 10:37 PM PT · arrives 12:15 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±10 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.