Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3871 · LAS → GEG
departs 10:32 PM PT · arrives 12:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at GEG that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.