Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3878 · SJC → DEN
departs 9:46 PM PT · arrives 1:20 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from SJC are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.