Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3894 · SJC → LGB
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 28%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 12%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12 24%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.