Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 396
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 396 · AUS → MSY
departs 9:52 PM CT · arrives 11:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.