Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4007
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4007 · SMF → SEA
departs 9:56 PM PT · arrives 11:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 40%
Fri 11/13 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SMF that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.