Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4047 · SMF → SAN
departs 7:25 PM PT · arrives 9:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.