Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4051 · LAX → SFO
departs 8:46 PM PT · arrives 10:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 59%
Fri 11/13 63%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.