Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4085 · SNA → SJC
departs 9:49 AM PT · arrives 11:18 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 13%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 11%
Fri 11/13 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.