Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4089
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4089 · OAK → SAN
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.