Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4096
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4096 · SNA → SMF
departs 6:56 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 44%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.