Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4130 · DAL → SAT
departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.