Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4219 · TPA → SAT
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 11/8 27%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.