Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 425 · SEA → SMF
departs 7:52 PM PT · arrives 9:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 30%
Wed 11/11 35%
Thu 11/12 45%
Fri 11/13 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±8 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.28 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.