Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 430 · AUS → SJC
departs 9:11 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 39%
Sat 11/14 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.16 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.