Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4410 · MDW → RIC
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 32%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.