Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4451 · LAS → RNO
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 7:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 11/8 48%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 42%
Fri 11/13 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.