Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4481 · LAS → TPA
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 6:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11 21%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 36%
Sat 11/14 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.