Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4495 · BNA → IND
departs 8:21 PM CT · arrives 10:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 30%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 30%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.