Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4515 · MCO → BWI
departs 11:48 AM ET · arrives 2:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 11/7 34%
Sun 11/8 16%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 20%
Wed 11/11 23%
Thu 11/12 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.