Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4747 · MDW → MSY
departs 9:15 PM CT · arrives 11:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 14%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 40%
Fri 11/13 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.