Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4751 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9 Tomorrow

WN 4751 · PHX → MCI

departs 8:20 PM MT · arrives 11:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4751 · PHX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?