Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4772
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4772 · BNA → SAN
departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 12:08 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12 26%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.