Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 482
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 482 · DEN → MTJ
departs 6:40 PM MT · arrives 7:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/8 33%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MTJ more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MTJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MTJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MTJ?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MTJ (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.