Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4831 · MCI → AUS
departs 10:41 AM CT · arrives 12:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 11/7 24%
Sun 11/8 23%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 9%
Wed 11/11 9%
Thu 11/12 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.