Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4858 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

WN 4858 · PHL → MCO

departs 12:37 PM ET · arrives 3:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4858 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?