Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4869 · LGB → SMF
departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 7:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sun 11/8 35%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.