Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4906 · LAS → AUS
departs 7:55 PM PT · arrives 12:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.